diff --git a/.dvc-store.dvc b/.dvc-store.dvc index 9d9a1d6..37cbd50 100644 --- a/.dvc-store.dvc +++ b/.dvc-store.dvc @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ outs: -- md5: 2428c0895414e6bd46c229b661a68b6d.dir - size: 724690357 - nfiles: 226 +- md5: b52c8929353b5ed374f10aab8c4e7837.dir + size: 753948666 + nfiles: 234 hash: md5 path: .dvc-store diff --git a/docs/NARRATIVE.md b/docs/NARRATIVE.md index 3b48751..589657a 100644 --- a/docs/NARRATIVE.md +++ b/docs/NARRATIVE.md @@ -361,18 +361,60 @@ This 8.5% per-pair divergence rate means: **Cost: $96 for Grok ×3** (3 × $32 through OpenRouter). Leaves $80 for Stage 2 judge and any reruns. An alternative — xAI's Batch API at 50% off — would reduce this to $48, but requires bypassing OpenRouter. -### Cost of the Reboot (updated) +### Stage 1 Results: Grok ×3 Self-Consistency (72,045 paragraphs) + +We ran 3 independent Grok 4.1 Fast passes over the full 72,045-paragraph corpus at concurrency 200. Each run completed in ~33 minutes. Total cost: $129.75 ($43.12–$43.62 per run). + +**Cross-run agreement:** + +| Dimension | Unanimous (3/3) | Majority (2/3) | All disagree | +|-----------|-----------------|----------------|--------------| +| Category | 68,394 (94.9%) | 3,583 (5.0%) | 68 (0.09%) | +| Specificity | 65,780 (91.3%) | 6,120 (8.5%) | 145 (0.20%) | + +Category is near-deterministic — 94.9% unanimous, and the 5% majority cases are concentrated at the BG↔MR and MR↔RMP boundaries (exactly the confusion axes identified during codebook development). Specificity shows the expected stochastic variation at 8.5% majority-only, matching the 8.5% divergence rate observed in the 47-paragraph pilot. + +**Consensus resolution:** +- **62,510 (86.8%)** — both unanimous, direct consensus +- **9,323 (12.9%)** — majority vote on at least one dimension +- **212 (0.3%)** — no majority on at least one dimension, resolved by GPT-5.4 judge + +The 212 tiebreaker paragraphs were run through GPT-5.4 with the full judge prompt (disagreement-aware disambiguation rules, shuffled prior annotations). GPT-5.4 agreed with one of the 3 Grok labels on 100% of paragraphs — never inventing a novel answer. This validates that the Grok runs produce reasonable labels and the disagreements are genuine boundary cases, not model failures. Judge cost: $5.76. + +**Final consensus distribution:** + +| Category | Count | % | | Specificity | Count | % | +|----------|-------|---|---|-------------|-------|---| +| RMP | 31,201 | 43.3% | | L1: Generic Boilerplate | 29,593 | 41.1% | +| BG | 13,876 | 19.3% | | L2: Domain-Adapted | 16,344 | 22.7% | +| MR | 10,591 | 14.7% | | L3: Firm-Specific | 17,911 | 24.9% | +| SI | 7,470 | 10.4% | | L4: Quantified-Verifiable | 8,197 | 11.4% | +| N/O | 4,576 | 6.4% | | | | | +| TP | 4,094 | 5.7% | | | | | +| ID | 237 | 0.3% | | | | | + +**v1→v2 category shifts:** BG rose from 16.0%→19.3% and N/O from 5.0%→6.4%, likely driven by the 22,250 paragraphs in the full corpus that v1 never annotated. RMP dropped from 45.8%→43.3%, partly because the v2 codebook's sharper BG/MR/RMP boundaries reclassified some borderline paragraphs. + +**Specificity is well-distributed.** L2 at 22.7% (above the 15% holdout target — the full corpus has more domain-rich paragraphs than the stratified holdout). L3 at 24.9% and L4 at 11.4% reflect the v2 codebook's tightened verifiability standards. + +**Category × specificity interaction (see `figures/stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png`):** MR is 87% L3/L4 (people have names, titles, and credentials). SI is 92% L1 (materiality boilerplate with no specific facts). ID is 86% L4 (incidents have dates, named threat actors, forensic firms). These patterns are exactly what the codebook predicts and match the holdout validation. + +**Specificity boundary analysis:** The 6,265 paragraphs where runs diverged on specificity are concentrated at adjacent levels: L1↔L2 (2,485), L1↔L3 (1,423), L2↔L3 (1,160), L3↔L4 (707). Cross-level jumps (L1↔L4, L2↔L4) are rare (~280 total). This confirms the self-consistency mechanism is working as intended — it provides tiebreaking signal exactly at the ambiguous boundaries where different reasoning paths legitimately land on different answers. + +### Cost of the Reboot (final) | Item | Estimated Cost | Actual Cost | |------|---------------|-------------| | Prompt iteration (v4.0–v4.5, ~8 rounds) | ~$10 | $19.59 | | v2 holdout benchmark (10 models + 3 pilots) | ~$45 | $45.47 | -| Stage 1 re-run (Grok ×3, 50K paragraphs) | ~$96 | pending | -| Stage 2 judge (disputed paragraphs) | ~$20-40 | pending | +| Stage 1 re-run (Grok ×3, 72K paragraphs) | ~$96 | $129.75 | +| Stage 2 judge (212 tiebreaker paragraphs) | ~$20-40 | $5.76 | | Human re-labeling | $0 (team labor) | pending | -| **Total additional API** | **~$175-185** | | +| **Total additional API** | **~$175-185** | **$200.57** | -Against the ~$120 already spent on v1 API calls (not recovered). Total project API cost: ~$300-305 of $360 budget. +Against the ~$120 already spent on v1 API calls (not recovered). Total project API cost: **$320.57 of $360 budget**. Remaining: **$39.43** — sufficient for any reruns or additional analysis. + +The cost overshoot ($200 vs $175 estimate) is entirely from annotating 72K paragraphs instead of the estimated 50K. The per-paragraph cost was actually lower than estimated ($0.60/paragraph for the full 3-run self-consistency + judge pipeline vs $0.64 estimated). --- diff --git a/docs/STATUS.md b/docs/STATUS.md index 06c04c3..3b43e09 100644 --- a/docs/STATUS.md +++ b/docs/STATUS.md @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ # Project Status — v2 Pipeline -**Deadline:** 2026-04-24 | **Started:** 2026-04-03 | **Updated:** 2026-04-05 (holdout benchmark done, Grok ×3 selected) +**Deadline:** 2026-04-24 | **Started:** 2026-04-03 | **Updated:** 2026-04-05 (Stage 1 complete, 72K×3 + judge) --- ## Carried Forward (not re-done) -- 72,045 paragraphs (49,795 annotated), quality tiers, 6 surgical patches +- 72,045 paragraphs (all annotated in v2), quality tiers, 6 surgical patches - DAPT checkpoint (eval loss 0.7250, ~14.5h) + TAPT checkpoint (eval loss 1.0754, ~50min) - v1 data preserved: 150K Stage 1 annotations, 10-model benchmark, 6-annotator human labels, gold adjudication - v2 codebook approved (5/6 group approval 2026-04-04) @@ -71,14 +71,18 @@ - **Top models:** Grok Fast (86.1% both), Opus prompt-only (85.2%), Gemini Pro (84.2%) - **Stage 1 panel:** Grok 4.1 Fast ×3 ($96 estimated) -### 6. Stage 1 Re-Run ← CURRENT +### 6. Stage 1 Re-Run — DONE - [x] Lock v2 prompt (v4.5) - [x] Model selection: Grok 4.1 Fast ×3 (self-consistency) -- [ ] Re-run Stage 1 on full corpus (~50K paragraphs × 3 runs) -- [ ] Distribution check: L2 ~15-17%, categories healthy -- **Estimated cost:** ~$96 +- [x] Re-run Stage 1 on full corpus (72,045 paragraphs × 3 runs, concurrency 200) +- [x] Cross-run agreement: category 94.9% unanimous, specificity 91.3% unanimous +- [x] Consensus: 62,510 unanimous (86.8%), 9,323 majority (12.9%), 212 judge tiebreaker (0.3%) +- [x] GPT-5.4 judge on 212 unresolved paragraphs — 100% agreed with a Grok label +- [x] Distribution check: L2=22.7% (above 15% target), categories healthy +- **Stage 1 cost:** $129.75 (3 runs) + $5.76 (judge) = $135.51 +- **Run time:** ~33 min per run at concurrency 200 -### 7. Labelapp Update +### 7. Labelapp Update ← CURRENT - [x] Update quiz questions for v2 codebook (v2 specificity rules, fixed impossible qv-3, all 4 levels as options) - [x] Update warmup paragraphs with v2 explanations - [x] Update onboarding content for v2 (Domain-Adapted, 1+ QV, domain terminology lists) @@ -100,10 +104,10 @@ - [ ] Gold = majority vote; all-disagree → model consensus tiebreaker - [ ] Cross-validate against model panel -### 10. Stage 2 (if needed) -- [ ] Bench Stage 2 accuracy against gold -- [ ] If adds value → run on disputed Stage 1 paragraphs -- **Estimated cost:** ~$20-40 if run +### 10. Stage 2 +- [x] GPT-5.4 judge resolved 212 tiebreaker paragraphs during Stage 1 consensus ($5.76) +- [ ] Bench Stage 2 accuracy against gold (if needed for additional disputed paragraphs) +- **Cost so far:** $5.76 | **Remaining budget:** ~$39 ### 11. Training Data Assembly - [ ] Unanimous Stage 1 → full weight, calibrated majority → full weight @@ -154,6 +158,32 @@ | Benchmark analysis | `scripts/analyze-v2-bench.py` | | Stage 1 prompt | `ts/src/label/prompts.ts` (v4.5) | | Holdout sampling script | `scripts/sample-v2-holdout.py` | +| v2 Stage 1 run 1 | `data/annotations/v2-stage1/grok-4.1-fast.run1.jsonl` (72,045) | +| v2 Stage 1 run 2 | `data/annotations/v2-stage1/grok-4.1-fast.run2.jsonl` (72,045) | +| v2 Stage 1 run 3 | `data/annotations/v2-stage1/grok-4.1-fast.run3.jsonl` (72,045) | +| v2 Stage 1 consensus | `data/annotations/v2-stage1/consensus.jsonl` (72,045) | +| v2 Stage 1 judge | `data/annotations/v2-stage1/judge.jsonl` (212 tiebreakers) | +| Stage 1 distribution charts | `figures/stage1-*.png` (7 charts) | +| Stage 1 chart script | `scripts/plot-stage1-distributions.py` | + +### v2 Stage 1 Distribution (72,045 paragraphs, v4.5 prompt, Grok ×3 consensus + GPT-5.4 judge) + +| Category | Count | % | +|----------|-------|---| +| RMP | 31,201 | 43.3% | +| BG | 13,876 | 19.3% | +| MR | 10,591 | 14.7% | +| SI | 7,470 | 10.4% | +| N/O | 4,576 | 6.4% | +| TP | 4,094 | 5.7% | +| ID | 237 | 0.3% | + +| Specificity | Count | % | +|-------------|-------|---| +| L1 | 29,593 | 41.1% | +| L2 | 16,344 | 22.7% | +| L3 | 17,911 | 24.9% | +| L4 | 8,197 | 11.4% | ### v1 Stage 1 Distribution (50,003 paragraphs, v2.5 prompt, 3-model consensus) diff --git a/figures/stage1-category-distribution.png b/figures/stage1-category-distribution.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1583ba6 Binary files /dev/null and b/figures/stage1-category-distribution.png differ diff --git a/figures/stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png b/figures/stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..90b445e Binary files /dev/null and b/figures/stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png differ diff --git a/figures/stage1-consensus-methods.png b/figures/stage1-consensus-methods.png new file mode 100644 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a/scripts/plot-stage1-distributions.py b/scripts/plot-stage1-distributions.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3fa79a --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/plot-stage1-distributions.py @@ -0,0 +1,373 @@ +""" +Stage 1 (v2) distribution charts for the writeup. +Generates: category distribution, specificity distribution, +cross-run agreement, consensus method breakdown, and +specificity disagreement boundary analysis. + +Usage: uvx --with matplotlib --with numpy python scripts/plot-stage1-distributions.py +""" + +import json +import collections +from pathlib import Path +import matplotlib +matplotlib.use("Agg") +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +import matplotlib.ticker as mtick +import numpy as np + +DATA = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "data" +FIGS = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "figures" +FIGS.mkdir(exist_ok=True) + +# ── Color palette ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +CAT_COLORS = { + "Risk Management Process": "#2196F3", + "Board Governance": "#4CAF50", + "Management Role": "#FF9800", + "Strategy Integration": "#9C27B0", + "None/Other": "#607D8B", + "Third-Party Risk": "#F44336", + "Incident Disclosure": "#00BCD4", +} +CAT_ABBREV = { + "Risk Management Process": "RMP", + "Board Governance": "BG", + "Management Role": "MR", + "Strategy Integration": "SI", + "None/Other": "N/O", + "Third-Party Risk": "TP", + "Incident Disclosure": "ID", +} +SPEC_COLORS = ["#BDBDBD", "#64B5F6", "#FFB74D", "#EF5350"] +SPEC_LABELS = ["L1: Generic\nBoilerplate", "L2: Domain-\nAdapted", "L3: Firm-\nSpecific", "L4: Quantified-\nVerifiable"] + +# ── Load data ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +runs = {} +for run in [1, 2, 3]: + path = DATA / f"annotations/v2-stage1/grok-4.1-fast.run{run}.jsonl" + runs[run] = {} + with open(path) as f: + for line in f: + r = json.loads(line) + runs[run][r["paragraphId"]] = r["label"] + +# Load judge results +judge = {} +judge_path = DATA / "annotations/v2-stage1/judge.jsonl" +if judge_path.exists(): + with open(judge_path) as f: + for line in f: + r = json.loads(line) + judge[r["paragraphId"]] = r["label"] + +all_ids = sorted(set(runs[1]) & set(runs[2]) & set(runs[3])) +N = len(all_ids) +print(f"Loaded {N} paragraphs across 3 runs, {len(judge)} judge results") + +# ── Compute consensus labels ───────────────────────────────────────────────── +final_cats = [] +final_specs = [] +consensus_methods = collections.Counter() + +for pid in all_ids: + cats = [runs[r][pid]["content_category"] for r in [1, 2, 3]] + specs = [runs[r][pid]["specificity_level"] for r in [1, 2, 3]] + cat_counts = collections.Counter(cats) + spec_counts = collections.Counter(specs) + cat_max = max(cat_counts.values()) + spec_max = max(spec_counts.values()) + + if cat_max == 3 and spec_max == 3: + consensus_methods["Unanimous (3/3)"] += 1 + final_cats.append(cat_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + final_specs.append(spec_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + elif cat_max >= 2 and spec_max >= 2: + consensus_methods["Majority (2/3)"] += 1 + final_cats.append(cat_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + final_specs.append(spec_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + else: + # Judge tiebreaker + if pid in judge: + consensus_methods["Judge tiebreaker"] += 1 + final_cats.append(judge[pid]["content_category"]) + final_specs.append(judge[pid]["specificity_level"]) + else: + consensus_methods["Unresolved"] += 1 + final_cats.append(cat_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + final_specs.append(spec_counts.most_common(1)[0][0]) + +plt.rcParams.update({ + "font.family": "sans-serif", + "font.size": 11, + "axes.titlesize": 13, + "axes.titleweight": "bold", + "figure.facecolor": "white", +}) + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 1: Category Distribution (final consensus) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +cat_counts_final = collections.Counter(final_cats) +cat_order = ["Risk Management Process", "Board Governance", "Management Role", + "Strategy Integration", "None/Other", "Third-Party Risk", "Incident Disclosure"] + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5)) +x = np.arange(len(cat_order)) +counts = [cat_counts_final[c] for c in cat_order] +colors = [CAT_COLORS[c] for c in cat_order] +bars = ax.bar(x, counts, color=colors, edgecolor="white", linewidth=0.5) + +for bar, count in zip(bars, counts): + pct = count / N * 100 + ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width() / 2, bar.get_height() + 200, + f"{count:,}\n({pct:.1f}%)", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=9) + +ax.set_xticks(x) +ax.set_xticklabels([CAT_ABBREV[c] for c in cat_order], fontsize=11) +ax.set_ylabel("Paragraphs") +ax.set_title("Content Category Distribution — Stage 1 Consensus (72,045 paragraphs)") +ax.set_ylim(0, max(counts) * 1.18) +ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False) +ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-category-distribution.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-category-distribution.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 2: Specificity Distribution (final consensus) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +spec_counts_final = collections.Counter(final_specs) + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5)) +x = np.arange(4) +counts = [spec_counts_final.get(i + 1, 0) for i in range(4)] +bars = ax.bar(x, counts, color=SPEC_COLORS, edgecolor="white", linewidth=0.5) + +for bar, count in zip(bars, counts): + pct = count / N * 100 + ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width() / 2, bar.get_height() + 200, + f"{count:,}\n({pct:.1f}%)", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=9) + +ax.set_xticks(x) +ax.set_xticklabels(SPEC_LABELS, fontsize=10) +ax.set_ylabel("Paragraphs") +ax.set_title("Specificity Distribution — Stage 1 Consensus (72,045 paragraphs)") +ax.set_ylim(0, max(counts) * 1.18) +ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False) +ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-specificity-distribution.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-specificity-distribution.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 3: Cross-run agreement (stacked bar showing unanimity rates) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +cat_agreement = {"Unanimous": 0, "Majority": 0, "All disagree": 0} +spec_agreement = {"Unanimous": 0, "Majority": 0, "All disagree": 0} + +for pid in all_ids: + cats = [runs[r][pid]["content_category"] for r in [1, 2, 3]] + specs = [runs[r][pid]["specificity_level"] for r in [1, 2, 3]] + cat_n = len(set(cats)) + spec_n = len(set(specs)) + + if cat_n == 1: cat_agreement["Unanimous"] += 1 + elif cat_n == 2: cat_agreement["Majority"] += 1 + else: cat_agreement["All disagree"] += 1 + + if spec_n == 1: spec_agreement["Unanimous"] += 1 + elif spec_n == 2: spec_agreement["Majority"] += 1 + else: spec_agreement["All disagree"] += 1 + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5)) +dims = ["Category", "Specificity"] +unanimous = [cat_agreement["Unanimous"] / N * 100, spec_agreement["Unanimous"] / N * 100] +majority = [cat_agreement["Majority"] / N * 100, spec_agreement["Majority"] / N * 100] +alldis = [cat_agreement["All disagree"] / N * 100, spec_agreement["All disagree"] / N * 100] + +x = np.arange(len(dims)) +w = 0.5 +b1 = ax.bar(x, unanimous, w, label="Unanimous (3/3)", color="#4CAF50") +b2 = ax.bar(x, majority, w, bottom=unanimous, label="Majority (2/3)", color="#FFC107") +b3 = ax.bar(x, alldis, w, bottom=[u + m for u, m in zip(unanimous, majority)], + label="All disagree", color="#F44336") + +for i, (u, m, a) in enumerate(zip(unanimous, majority, alldis)): + ax.text(i, u / 2, f"{u:.1f}%", ha="center", va="center", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold", color="white") + if m > 2: + ax.text(i, u + m / 2, f"{m:.1f}%", ha="center", va="center", fontsize=10, color="black") + if a > 0.5: + ax.text(i, u + m + a / 2, f"{a:.2f}%", ha="center", va="center", fontsize=8, color="white") + +ax.set_xticks(x) +ax.set_xticklabels(dims, fontsize=12) +ax.set_ylabel("Percentage of paragraphs") +ax.set_title("Grok ×3 Cross-Run Agreement (72,045 paragraphs)") +ax.set_ylim(0, 105) +ax.legend(loc="upper right", fontsize=10) +ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False) +ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-cross-run-agreement.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-cross-run-agreement.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 4: Consensus method breakdown (pie/donut) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(7, 7)) +method_order = ["Unanimous (3/3)", "Majority (2/3)", "Judge tiebreaker"] +method_counts = [consensus_methods.get(m, 0) for m in method_order] +method_colors = ["#4CAF50", "#FFC107", "#2196F3"] + +wedges, texts, autotexts = ax.pie( + method_counts, labels=method_order, colors=method_colors, + autopct=lambda p: f"{p:.1f}%\n({int(round(p * N / 100)):,})", + startangle=90, pctdistance=0.75, + wedgeprops=dict(width=0.45, edgecolor="white", linewidth=2), +) +for t in autotexts: + t.set_fontsize(10) +ax.set_title("Consensus Resolution Method — Stage 1") +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-consensus-methods.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-consensus-methods.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 5: Specificity boundary disagreements (where runs diverge) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +boundary_counts = collections.Counter() +for pid in all_ids: + specs = [runs[r][pid]["specificity_level"] for r in [1, 2, 3]] + if len(set(specs)) == 1: + continue + low, high = min(specs), max(specs) + boundary_counts[f"L{low}↔L{high}"] += 1 + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 5)) +boundaries = sorted(boundary_counts.keys()) +counts = [boundary_counts[b] for b in boundaries] +colors_b = ["#90CAF9" if "1↔2" in b else "#FFE082" if "2↔3" in b or "1↔3" in b + else "#EF9A9A" if "3↔4" in b else "#CE93D8" for b in boundaries] +bars = ax.barh(boundaries, counts, color=colors_b, edgecolor="white") + +for bar, count in zip(bars, counts): + ax.text(bar.get_width() + 20, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height() / 2, + f"{count:,} ({count / N * 100:.1f}%)", va="center", fontsize=10) + +ax.set_xlabel("Paragraphs with divergent specificity") +ax.set_title("Specificity Boundary Disagreements Across 3 Grok Runs") +ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False) +ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False) +ax.set_xlim(0, max(counts) * 1.25) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-specificity-boundaries.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-specificity-boundaries.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 6: Category × Specificity heatmap (final consensus) +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +cat_spec_matrix = np.zeros((len(cat_order), 4)) +for cat, spec in zip(final_cats, final_specs): + i = cat_order.index(cat) + cat_spec_matrix[i, spec - 1] += 1 + +# Normalize to row percentages +row_sums = cat_spec_matrix.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True) +cat_spec_pct = cat_spec_matrix / row_sums * 100 + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 6)) +im = ax.imshow(cat_spec_pct, cmap="YlOrRd", aspect="auto") + +for i in range(len(cat_order)): + for j in range(4): + count = int(cat_spec_matrix[i, j]) + pct = cat_spec_pct[i, j] + color = "white" if pct > 50 else "black" + ax.text(j, i, f"{count:,}\n({pct:.0f}%)", ha="center", va="center", + fontsize=8, color=color) + +ax.set_xticks(range(4)) +ax.set_xticklabels(["L1", "L2", "L3", "L4"], fontsize=11) +ax.set_yticks(range(len(cat_order))) +ax.set_yticklabels([CAT_ABBREV[c] for c in cat_order], fontsize=11) +ax.set_xlabel("Specificity Level") +ax.set_ylabel("Content Category") +ax.set_title("Category × Specificity — Stage 1 Consensus (row %)") +fig.colorbar(im, ax=ax, label="Row %", shrink=0.8) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-category-specificity-heatmap.png") + + +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# FIGURE 7: v1 vs v2 category comparison +# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ +# v1 distribution from STATUS.md (50,003 paragraphs, different base) +v1_pct = { + "Risk Management Process": 45.8, + "Management Role": 17.6, + "Board Governance": 16.0, + "Strategy Integration": 10.0, + "None/Other": 5.0, + "Third-Party Risk": 5.0, + "Incident Disclosure": 0.6, +} +v2_pct = {c: cat_counts_final[c] / N * 100 for c in cat_order} + +fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5)) +x = np.arange(len(cat_order)) +w = 0.35 +b1 = ax.bar(x - w / 2, [v1_pct[c] for c in cat_order], w, label="v1 (50K, 3-model panel)", + color="#90CAF9", edgecolor="white") +b2 = ax.bar(x + w / 2, [v2_pct[c] for c in cat_order], w, label="v2 (72K, Grok ×3)", + color="#2196F3", edgecolor="white") + +for bar_group in [b1, b2]: + for bar in bar_group: + h = bar.get_height() + ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width() / 2, h + 0.3, + f"{h:.1f}%", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=8) + +ax.set_xticks(x) +ax.set_xticklabels([CAT_ABBREV[c] for c in cat_order], fontsize=11) +ax.set_ylabel("Percentage") +ax.set_title("Category Distribution: v1 vs v2 Stage 1") +ax.legend(fontsize=10) +ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False) +ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False) +fig.tight_layout() +fig.savefig(FIGS / "stage1-v1-vs-v2-categories.png", dpi=200) +plt.close(fig) +print(" ✓ stage1-v1-vs-v2-categories.png") + + +# ── Print summary stats ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +print(f"\n{'═' * 60}") +print(f"Stage 1 Consensus Summary") +print(f"{'═' * 60}") +print(f"Total paragraphs: {N:,}") +print(f"\nConsensus methods:") +for m in ["Unanimous (3/3)", "Majority (2/3)", "Judge tiebreaker"]: + c = consensus_methods.get(m, 0) + print(f" {m}: {c:,} ({c / N * 100:.1f}%)") +print(f"\nCategory distribution (consensus):") +for c in cat_order: + n = cat_counts_final[c] + print(f" {CAT_ABBREV[c]:4s} {n:>6,} ({n / N * 100:.1f}%)") +print(f"\nSpecificity distribution (consensus):") +for i in range(4): + n = spec_counts_final.get(i + 1, 0) + print(f" L{i + 1} {n:>6,} ({n / N * 100:.1f}%)") diff --git a/ts/src/cli.ts b/ts/src/cli.ts index 741d640..f344256 100644 --- a/ts/src/cli.ts +++ b/ts/src/cli.ts @@ -1,3 +1,4 @@ +import pLimit from "p-limit"; import { readJsonl } from "./lib/jsonl.ts"; import { Paragraph } from "@sec-cybert/schemas/paragraph.ts"; import { Annotation } from "@sec-cybert/schemas/annotation.ts"; @@ -142,7 +143,7 @@ async function cmdConsensus(): Promise { // Only process paragraphs with all 3 annotations let consensus = 0; let needsJudge = 0; - const outputPath = `${DATA}/annotations/consensus.jsonl`; + const outputPath = `${DATA}/annotations/${inputDir}/consensus.jsonl`; for (const [paragraphId, anns] of allAnnotations) { if (anns.length !== 3) continue; @@ -163,20 +164,23 @@ async function cmdConsensus(): Promise { async function cmdJudge(): Promise { // Load paragraphs and consensus results needing judge - const paragraphs = await loadParagraphs(); + const paragraphsPath = `${DATA}/paragraphs/paragraphs-clean.patched.jsonl`; + const { records: paragraphs, skipped: pSkipped } = await readJsonl(paragraphsPath, Paragraph); + if (pSkipped > 0) process.stderr.write(` ⚠ Skipped ${pSkipped} invalid paragraph lines\n`); + process.stderr.write(` Loaded ${paragraphs.length} paragraphs\n`); const paragraphMap = new Map(paragraphs.map((p) => [p.id, p])); - const consensusPath = `${DATA}/annotations/consensus.jsonl`; + const judgeDir = flag("input-dir") ?? "v2-stage1"; + const consensusPath = `${DATA}/annotations/${judgeDir}/consensus.jsonl`; const { records: rawConsensus } = await readJsonlRaw(consensusPath); // Load all stage 1 annotations for lookup (3 self-consistency runs) const stage1Map: Map = new Map(); - const judgeInputDir = flag("input-dir") ?? "v2-stage1"; const judgeModelShort = STAGE1_MODEL.split("/")[1]!; for (let run = 1; run <= STAGE1_RUNS; run++) { const { records } = await readJsonl( - `${DATA}/annotations/${judgeInputDir}/${judgeModelShort}.run${run}.jsonl`, + `${DATA}/annotations/${judgeDir}/${judgeModelShort}.run${run}.jsonl`, Annotation, ); for (const ann of records) { @@ -198,7 +202,7 @@ async function cmdJudge(): Promise { } // Check what's already judged - const judgePath = `${DATA}/annotations/stage2/judge.jsonl`; + const judgePath = `${DATA}/annotations/${judgeDir}/judge.jsonl`; const { records: existing } = await readJsonlRaw(judgePath); const judgedIds = new Set( existing @@ -208,43 +212,52 @@ async function cmdJudge(): Promise { ); const toJudge = unresolvedIds.filter((id) => !judgedIds.has(id)); - process.stderr.write(` ${toJudge.length} paragraphs to judge (${judgedIds.size} already done)\n`); + const judgeModelId = flag("model") ?? "openai/gpt-5.4"; + const concurrency = flagInt("concurrency", 30); + process.stderr.write(` ${toJudge.length} paragraphs to judge (${judgedIds.size} already done) │ ${judgeModelId} │ concurrency=${concurrency}\n`); const runId = uuidv4(); let processed = 0; + let errored = 0; + const limit_ = pLimit(concurrency); - for (const paragraphId of toJudge) { - const paragraph = paragraphMap.get(paragraphId); - if (!paragraph) continue; + const tasks = toJudge.map((paragraphId) => + limit_(async () => { + const paragraph = paragraphMap.get(paragraphId); + if (!paragraph) return; - const stage1Anns = stage1Map.get(paragraphId); - if (!stage1Anns || stage1Anns.length < 3) continue; + const stage1Anns = stage1Map.get(paragraphId); + if (!stage1Anns || stage1Anns.length < 3) return; - const priorLabels = stage1Anns.map((a) => ({ - content_category: a.label.content_category, - specificity_level: a.label.specificity_level, - reasoning: a.label.reasoning, - })); + const priorLabels = stage1Anns.map((a) => ({ + content_category: a.label.content_category, + specificity_level: a.label.specificity_level, + reasoning: a.label.reasoning, + })); - try { - const judgeAnn = await judgeParagraph(paragraph, priorLabels, { - runId, - promptVersion: PROMPT_VERSION, - }); - await appendJsonl(judgePath, judgeAnn); - processed++; + try { + const judgeAnn = await judgeParagraph(paragraph, priorLabels, { + runId, + promptVersion: PROMPT_VERSION, + modelId: judgeModelId, + }); + await appendJsonl(judgePath, judgeAnn); + processed++; - if (processed % 10 === 0) { - process.stderr.write(` Judged ${processed}/${toJudge.length}\n`); + if (processed % 10 === 0) { + process.stderr.write(` Judged ${processed}/${toJudge.length}\n`); + } + } catch (error) { + errored++; + process.stderr.write( + ` ✖ Judge error for ${paragraphId}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}\n`, + ); } - } catch (error) { - process.stderr.write( - ` ✖ Judge error for ${paragraphId}: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}\n`, - ); - } - } + }), + ); - process.stderr.write(`\n ✓ Judged ${processed} paragraphs\n`); + await Promise.all(tasks); + process.stderr.write(`\n ✓ Judged ${processed} paragraphs (${errored} errors)\n`); } async function cmdGolden(): Promise { diff --git a/ts/src/label/annotate.ts b/ts/src/label/annotate.ts index beea317..98e064f 100644 --- a/ts/src/label/annotate.ts +++ b/ts/src/label/annotate.ts @@ -119,6 +119,8 @@ export async function annotateParagraph( export interface JudgeOpts { runId: string; promptVersion?: string; + /** Override judge model. Defaults to Claude Sonnet 4.6. */ + modelId?: string; } /** @@ -216,8 +218,7 @@ export async function judgeParagraph( }>, opts: JudgeOpts, ): Promise { - const { runId, promptVersion = PROMPT_VERSION } = opts; - const modelId = "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6"; + const { runId, promptVersion = PROMPT_VERSION, modelId = "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6" } = opts; const requestedAt = new Date().toISOString(); const start = Date.now();